Published March 8th 2023

Daily Brief - ☀️ Is the US job market booming?

TLDR: To say Friday is a big market day is an understatement. There is a lot riding on the jobs report that will hit the tapes at 8.30 am EST. January US jobs report, hot enough to scald a lizard, upended markets and expectations of just how far the Federal Reserve would have to go to cool the economy. So is the labor market really booming?

The report is expected to show that the US added 215,000 jobs in February, a big step down from the 517,000 added in January. The stakes are high for the Fed. Last month, the Central Bank slowed the pace of its monetary tightening to a 25 bps hike after a series of 75 and 50 bps raises last year.

us payrolls

Although unlikely to impact the decision to hike 25 bps in March - Feds hate to move the increments up in a zig-zag fashion for fear of seeming not-in-the-know - the jobs report will definitely drive market perception of how many more hikes come after that one.

If the data show that the re-acceleration at the start of the year was short-lived, the Fed’s more dovish narrative will become much easier. In fairness, a similar (even larger) jump in jobs happened last July before the job pace resumed its downward trend.

If the data is once again stronger - payrolls, or wage growth - that story will come under fire.

This is the balancing act Chairman Powell will have to perform on Tuesday and Wednesday when he testifies before Congress on monetary policy, unable to know what Friday might bring. Normally, this testimony is as dry as it gets in the world of live TV but this time markets are likely to hang on every word.

As far as Mr Powell, a little bad news on Friday would be good news.

What stocks are doing well today?

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TOGGLE Leading Indicators: Is this a dead cat bounce?

The Through Probability indicator was correct in calling for a rebound - at least in the very short term. However after the latest rebound all indicators swung into neutral … and are inching towards their peak thresholds. Is this the making of a dead cat bounce?

  • ⬜TLI: flashed red again last week, and is now turning towards positive
  • ⬜ Rangefinder Index: flirted with the bullish threshold but reverted
  • ⬜ Peak Probability Indicator: flirting with an anti-peak (i.e. a trough)
  • ⬜ Trough Probability Indicator: There comes the first bullish signal
  • ⬜ Candle Breadth: shied away from the border of a bullish signal
  • ⬜ Market Phase Shift Indicator: still not active, this is a longer-term indicator

Learn more about the Leading Indicators in the Learn Center!

rangefinder 030723

Upcoming Earnings: Campbell Soup releases tomorrow


Click here to test what to expect when CPB releases earnings tomorrow.

Discover how other companies could react post earnings with the help of TOGGLE's WhatIF Earnings tool.

Asset Spotlight: Lululemon exhibits positive seasonality

TOGGLE analyzed 15 similar occasions in the past where seasonality indicators for Lululemon were positive over the next 3M and historically this led to a median increase in the stock price. Check it out!


General Interest: How a single engineer brought down Twitter

elon tweet

If you have not heard yet, Twitter was down Monday morning.

Clicking on links would no longer open them; instead, users would see a mysterious error message reporting that “your current API plan does not include access to this endpoint.” Images stopped loading as well. Other users reported that they could not access TweetDeck, the Twitter-owned client for professional users.“, we quote from the Verge.

Apparently, that was the result of the mass firings that swept the company since Musk’s takeover.

A single engineer was staffed on a major API service which interconnected to several other functionalities in the app - leading to a major crash.

Read more here.

Daily Brief - ☀️ Is the US job market booming?

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