Published March 16th 2023

Daily Brief - 🌩️ Bye Credit Suisse

TLDR: CS is feeling the pinch as investors run away from banks. Their 1y CDS hit 800bps this morning. This feels all too familiar.

credit suisse

You know the “here we go again” meme? That’s the feeling right now with Credit Suisse.

When the company asked for more equity from their cornerstone investors, the Saudis were like “nah mate, I’m good” (FTAV has a nice piece on it). And markets took that personally.

Which leaves us with the nasty CDS chart above 800bps and an eerie feeling of deja vu.

In the words of Larry Fink, this might be a slow-rolling crisis as we hike rates, unwind QE and generally see markets fall. And don’t hold your breath for a dovish J-Pow next week. He’s here to tame inflation.

Bottom line? Beware equities.

What stocks are doing well today?

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TOGGLE Leading Indicators: Three indicators in bullish territory - but watch out for the newsflow

As mentioned yesterday, three indicators are in bullish territory, two more to go. However the newsfeed is really bad.

This feels like a good entry point in the making, but BEWARE of the Fed next week.

  • 🟦TLI
  • ⬜ Rangefinder Index
  • ⬜ Peak Probability Indicator
  • 🟦 Valley Probability Indicator
  • 🟦 Candle Breadth
  • ⬜ Market Phase Shift Indicator

Learn more about the Leading Indicators in the Learn Center!

rangefinder

Upcoming Earnings: FedEx releases tomorrow

fdx

Click here to test what to expect when FDX releases earnings tomorrow.

Discover how other companies could react post earnings with the help of TOGGLE's WhatIF Earnings tool.

Asset Spotlight: The Last of Snap

TOGGLE analyzed 9 similar occasions in the past where price level indicators for Snap are close to a recent low and historically this led to a median increase in the stock price over the following 6M. Check it out!

snap

General Interest: Weekly dose of Optimism

optimism

Since the market is down and Doomsday is upon us, let’s brighten our days with Packy McCormick’s optimist column.

From batteries that last longer to US-EU free trade, the world is not such a bad place.

Read more here.

Daily Brief - 🌩️ Bye Credit Suisse

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