Published June 24th 2022

Daily Brief - The Thursday Market Checklist

TLDR

A new low for S&P 500 P/E shows we’re working our way to more sensible valuations, albeit SPX forward earnings keep trudging higher. But we really don’t like Economic Surprises making new lows - it could depress earnings eventually.

Also the TLI is squarely into bullish territory suggesting a pause in the bearish price action.

The TOGGLE Market Checklist

The good: S&P 500 working its P/E ratio lower is encouraging. We’re looking at 14x or lower to assume things have stabilised, and we recently made a cyclical low of 15.8x.

The bad: Citi Economic Surprises made a new low after apparently stabilising. This might lead to weakness on S&P 500 earnings - of which we perplexingly see none yet.

Upcoming: Eyes focused on PMIs in 2 weeks.

market checklist june 23 2022

Show me the data

Here are the links to all the data points discussed above:

Idea Spotlight: Nike

Price level indicators for Nike dropped abruptly to 104.92 and historically, this led to a median increase in price of 14.88% over the following 3M. TOGGLE analyzed 19 similar occasions in the past to produce the median projection and this insight received 6 out of 8 stars in our quality assessment.

Reuters reported Thursday that Nike will exit its Russia operations over the coming months, following similar moves from McDonald's and Starbucks.

nike price history june 23 2022

Daily Brief - The Thursday Market Checklist

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