Published November 17th 2022

Daily Brief - A new leading indicator!

TLDR

Big announcement! Today we introduce a new member to our family of leading indicators: the Peak and Valley Probability Index. Check it out below!

Also Burry made an interesting comment on gold. We agree with Elon that in general Burry is a broken clock, but this idea is intriguing.

gold tweet

Gold in 2023?

With inflation coming down rates are coming down too, enough to stop the USD’s reckless rally. This base effect was enough to push gold up from $1,630 to $1,770 in a matter of days.

Going forward, can Gold act as a haven for crypto orphans? Well certainly for some, who might be seeking a proper base of value that cannot be diluted by money-printing.

We add Gold to the list of our favourite trades:

🏷️ Value stocks πŸ’΅ High-dividend stocks 🏦 US 10y Treasuries πŸ’° Cash 🟨 Gold β†˜οΈ Call overwriting - for expert skiers only πŸ“ˆ Curve steepener - for expert skiers only

The Peak & Valley Probability Index

We love leading indicators, and we know you love them too. Starting today the Daily Brief will carry our indicators Wednesdays (Peak and Valley), Thursdays (RLI) and Fridays (TLI)!

Today we introduce our Peak & Valley Probability Index. The index is a probabilistic gauge of how close we are to a peak or trough in the broad market.

The index is built on a risk-adjusted and time-adjusted calculation of the size of the recent market moves. The index has been pointing to a top in the market in the last few days.

peak & valley index

Idea Spotlight: US Bancorp

TOGGLE analyzed 11 similar occasions in the past where volatility indicators for USB:NYSE reached a recent low and historically, this led to a median increase in price. This insight received 5 out of 8 stars in our quality assessment.

In other news, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has cashed in about $4 billion of USB stock, decreasing its stake in the banking group by more than 60% in the space of four months.

us bancorp price chart

Daily Brief - A new leading indicator!

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