Daily Brief - ☀️ What a market

TLDR: How long can we stay in the range? Longer than you think

Why are we stuck in this range?

It’s a balance of different forces.

SPX is in better shape than in Q1, and fears of a recession have evaporated. In fact, EPS are even trending up slightly. And we have AI now to save the day. And shorts are getting squeezed. On the other hand…19 P/E for equities feels rich, AI or not.

It’s a net positive we’ve been making higher highs and higher lows in the last two quarters, but at this point SPX earnings need to go up for the market to rally.

It’s a range-bound market with a modicum of trend - a fun place for traders.

A fun fact for the traders out there: in the last months the probability that today the market goes in the opposite direction compared to yesterday is 60%. That’s as high as it usually gets, and it makes for interesting short-term reversion play

What stocks are doing well today?

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What would happen if you dropped Bluto from Animal House in a Christian high school and then in a Christian college? You are about to find out.

20 years later a real-life Bluto discovered a talent as a storyteller, and took time to pen a few of his exploits. Read how he un-braked a bus full of kids down a hill here and how he got banned from Liberty University here.

What a madlad.