Bank of New York Mellon (BK:NYSE) is an American investment banking services holding company based in New York City. The bank is known for providing financial exposure with lower credit risk. Unlike other banks, BNY is a trust bank, which means the majority of its revenue is generated from fees, specifically from mutual funds. Other lines of business include wealth management, fixed income clearing, and corporate Treasury services. Last week, BNY beat earnings and EPS expectations in its earnings call, despite a rocky quarter in the overall market. Based on BNY’s business model, we could see revenue growing as the Fed funds rate increases, allowing BNY to charge fees on money market accounts (which were previously waived). What does this mean for the stock?
Recently, on January 25th, TOGGLE published an insight about $BK, showing that price level indicators for IHS Markit abruptly dropped to 112.91. Based on BNY’s historic performance, TOGGLE’s AI identified that this may lead to a median increase of 7% over the following 3M, as shown in the chart below. This insight got a 7 out of our 8-star rating system (more on that later)
How did TOGGLE come up with this?
TOGGLE uses the power of machine learning and artificial intelligence to analyze data and turn it into easy-to-read insights that you can use to help your decision-making. For this particular insight, TOGGLE's AI analyzed 10 similar occasions in the past to help identify this insight's median projection and confidence band.
The dotted line you see is the expected path, which is based on similar instances in the past. The shaded area represents a confidence band, and BNY's price typically stays within those boundaries if the asset performs like it did in the past. The flat, solid green line indicates where TOGGLE expects the asset to reach. Last but not least, the flat red line is a possible stop-loss level, the point at which $BK has deviated too far from the expected path and you should reevaluate your position.
How reliable are these insights?
Well, that's up for you to decide. TOGGLE uses an 8-star rating system, which evaluates the same stats that institutional investors like to look at when managing money professionally. We ask questions that determine if these conditions have happened before, how accurate they've been, and how frequent they've occurred, and more. This insight received a 7 out of 8 on our star rating system (as seen below), and this encompasses the robustness of the relationship between the driver and subsequent price action.
While crunching the numbers, TOGGLE also studied IHS Markit’s price level indicators and detected a consistent relationship between the driver and BNY’s subsequent asset movement. The chart below highlights the times in the past when the drivers (specifically price) were at similar levels as right now. For this insight, TOGGLE’s AI identified 10 different times, or “episodes,” when a similar set-up has happened in the past. Of those episodes, TOGGLE found that 83% of those resulted in an upward move over a 3M horizon, which helped form this insight.
So, how do I use this info?
Ultimately, what sets TOGGLE apart is that when it comes to investing, we won’t tell you what to do, but we’ll be here to give you the fullest picture to help you trade with confidence. We recommend reading the full insight here to get the complete picture, and better guide your decision-making.
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