Daily Brief - From PMI Slump to Market Jump

TLDR: April's release of the S&P Global PMI data presented a stark deviation from the generally robust U.S. economic indicators seen earlier this year.

The data revealed a dip in both the Manufacturing and Services PMIs, signaling a slowdown in economic activities. Notably, the composite index reached a four-month low at 50.9, barely staying above the threshold that separates expansion from contraction.

Following the PMI release, the 10-year Treasury yields fell to 4.58%, which coupled with robust earnings reports from key players across various sectors, led to a rally.

Tesla Inc. took the spotlight, spurred by announcements of accelerated production of more affordable models and a positive outlook from CEO Elon Musk. This upbeat sentiment was echoed across the board, with the S&P 500 experiencing its strongest consecutive gains in two months.

Nvidia Corp. led the charge among technology stocks, riding the wave of the ongoing artificial intelligence boom. Similarly, UPS exceeded profit expectations, further lifting market spirits. Moreover, Goldman Sachs hit an all-time high, underscoring the strength in financial stocks.

Looking ahead, the Fed Funds Futures market now sees a nearly 50/50 chance of a rate cut as early as July, a notable shift in expectations. With further rate cuts anticipated potentially in September and later in the year, investors are recalibrating their strategies to adapt to this evolving economic landscape.

Scenario Spotlight: What's next for the SPX?

The chart above show the historical 1-month response from SPX post the past 16 episodes when the index rose 2% in just 2 days.

Market Movers: Response from US Sectors

Here are the best and worst performing sectors on 1-month horizon, post the SPX rising 2% in 2 days:

Top 3 performing assets:

1. S&P Technology with a return of 2.30%
2. S&P Hardware with a return of 2.17%
3. S&P Oil & Gas Explor & Prod with a return of 1.99%

Bottom 3 performing assets:

1. Industrials Select Sector with a return of 0.66%
2. S&P Regional Banks with a return of -0.09%
3. S&P Banks Select Industry Index with a return of -0.27%

Earnings Spotlight: UPS beats estimates

United Parcel Service (UPS) exceeded quarterly profit expectations with an adjusted profit of $1.43 per share, despite a 35% year-over-year decline, bolstered by strategic cost reductions and a $1 billion cost-cutting initiative.

However, revenue slightly missed expectations at $21.7 billion. To counter lower package volumes, UPS is shifting focus to higher-margin deliveries, particularly in healthcare, with ambitions to double its healthcare revenue by 2026.