투자학 개론

You’ve probably heard of this term if you’ve taken any economic course or been keeping up with the news lately. Monetary policy refers to the tools used by a central bank in order to control the overall money supply, to either promote economic growth (expansionary) or slow it down (contractionary). 

For example in the United States, the Federal Reserve uses monetary policy such as revising interest rates or changing bank reserve requirements, to achieve maximum employment while keeping inflation in check.

**Understanding Money Supply**

Money supply is defined in various ways - and according to some definitions it includes all the currency (cash) and other liquid instruments circulating through a country’s economy at a measured time. As of December 2021, the Federal Reserve reported that the approximate money supply was ~$20.5 trillion. 

Changing the money supply through monetary policy has a snowball effect: an increase typically lowers interest rates, which in turn generates more investment, puts more money into the hands of consumers and therefore stimulates spending. As a result, businesses respond by ramping up production to meet the rising demand, more materials and labour is needed too. With more demand, prices rise from luxury cars all the way down to a pack of bananas. 

On the other hand, decreasing the money supply results in the opposite, decreasing growth and taking money away from consumers. Currently, in order to give suppliers breathing room to catch up on unmet demand and stop prices from rising any higher, the federal bank is attempting to restrict the money supply by aggressively raising interest rates. 

**Monetary Policy Tools**

1. _Open Market Operations_
In the open market, the FED buys or sells bonds to change the number of outstanding government securities in the market and thus money available to an economy. Government bonds are a preferred investment over other bonds or equity because they are essentially risk-free assets. The objective is to manipulate short-term interest rates, which affects longer term rates. You might be more familiar with the terms quantitative easing and tightening. Easing relates to selling more bonds to the economy while tightening refers to buying back bonds from the economy. 

2. _Interest Rates_
In the U.S, interest rates are known as discount rates and are the rate used by banks to lend money. Higher interest rates means that it's more expensive to borrow money while lower interest rates makes it cheaper to borrow. You still need to pay back the full borrowed amount - but if your debit is “floating rate” then your payment will adjust according to the movements of interest rates . For example, in order to ramp up the economy post the slowdown due to COVID, interest rates were set at nearly 0%, meaning that borrowing money was extremely cheap, which eventually led to the accelerated growth of businesses and the global economy. 

3. _Reserve Requirements_
One of the rules big banks are legally required to follow is the reserve requirement - how much money (from deposits) they must retain in their vaults. This number has always been less than 100% - meaning that a bank can only lend out reserves excess of the requirement, to other banks, business or consumers. Historically, the reserve requirement has been ~10%. Lowering this requirement means banks can lend more reserves which releases more capital into the economy, thus increasing the supply. Increasing the requirement means banks can lend out lesser money, which reduces supply and therefore slows growth. 

Essentially, central banks will assess the economy under the lens of their mandate (usually the mandate is to maintain price stability) and use all tools at their disposal to achieve these goals. 

Monetary policy usually works in accord - or at least with consideration for - fiscal policy.


Monetary policy refers to the tools used by a central bank in order to control the overall money supply, to either promote economic growth or slow it down. 

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경제 지표

PMI는 비즈니스가 어떻게 진행되고 있는지 묻는 기업에 대한 설문조사입니다. 그것들은 품질을 선도하는 매크로 데이터이며 주의 깊게 관찰되어야 합니다. PMI는 구매 관리자 지수를 의미합니다.

미국의 ISM과 같은 PMI를 생산하는 회사는 "_재고가 전월보다 높거나 낮습니까?_"와 같은 질문을하는 질문을 대규모 회사 그룹에 보냅니다.

결과는 긍정적인 응답의 백분율로 게시됩니다. 따라서 재고 PMI가 60이면 조회한 회사의 60%가 전월에 비해 재고가 더 많다는 의미입니다.

PMI 설문조사에는 많은 질문이 있지만 가장 중요한 질문, 집중해야 하는 질문은 New Orders입니다.

새로운 주문은 이용 가능한 거시적 성장의 가장 이른 측정기 중 하나입니다. 매월 1일에 그들을 주시하십시오.

따라서 결론적으로 'US ISM Manufacturing New Orders PMI'를 다음과 같이 분해해야 합니다.

-🇺🇸 미국: 자유의 땅과 용감한 자의 고향 – 이는 중국이나 일본 또는 이탈리아 PMI도 가질 수 있음을 의미합니다.
-📦 ISM: 설문조사를 수행하는 비영리 기관인 Institute for Supply Management – ​​다른 기관도 전 세계적으로 동일한 업무를 수행하며, IHS-Markit이 핵심 기관 중 하나입니다.
-🏭 제조업: 모든 제조업의 거대 부문 집합체("서비스"와 반대) - 모든 부문에 대한 PMI를 가질 수 있습니다.
-🧾 신규 주문: 제조업체에 새로 주문한 경우 - 설문조사 질문 중 하나이며 전체 목록에는 재고, 투입 가격, 산출 가격, 고용 비용 등이 포함됩니다.
-🙋 PMI: 설문조사를 기반으로 한 지수 – PMI는 전체적으로 방대한 데이터 범주입니다.

미국 ISM 제조업 신규 주문 PMI

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