TheStreet - Bank of America's CEO flags a big Fed risk

Toggle AI's Chief Product Officer RJ Assaly was featured in TheStreet's article discussing the Fed's risk and inflation.

RJ Assaly, chief market strategist at Toggle AI, says consumer spending might provide a better indicator for the "are we or are we not headed for recession debate." The Commerce Department's July retail sales report on Thursday is expected to show headline spending rose 0.2% from June, but that gain is likely to have been the result of a notable bump higher in gasoline prices. Core and control-group sales, which factor into the government's GDP calculations, are likely to have slowed. "If inflation comes in lower than expected, and retail sales for Home Depot, Lowe's, and Walmart show that consumer spending is weak, it could increase recession concerns," he added. Should that transpire, Assaly argues, the Fed, aiming to avoid "falling behind the curve, may become more aggressive, and that's where I think markets are likely to experience much more panic” in terms of an outsized September rate cut.

Read the full article on TheStreet.