Aggregated Indicator
Last update: Aug 22 2023
As the name suggests, the aggregated indicator provides a unified view of all our leading indicators. The indicator works on a “hat trick” logic: it activates when at least 3 individual leading indicators are jointly active within the last 21 days - the idea being that a collation of several indicators expressing different aspects of the market can better gauge turning points.
![aggregated indicator](https://storage.googleapis.com/toggle-webcm-prod/https://storage.googleapis.com/toggle-webcm-prod/spx_aggregated_90_59b0cacd66/spx_aggregated_90_59b0cacd66.png)
As an example, if the TLI, Rangefinder and Peak indicators all hit their respective bearish thresholds, the Aggregated Indicator will post a negative “0” reading and a red arrow will be generated above. In the symmetric case, if 3 indicators are turning bullish together the Aggregate will shift to 100 and issue a blue arrow.
For red arrows, history has shown that the S&P 500 has reacted with the highest probability of success over a 10 day horizon before returns start to diminish. For blue arrows, history has shown that the S&P 500 sees rising returns, with the shortest holding period of 10 trading days after its activation.
Most recently, the aggregated indicator successfully highlighted that the S&P 500 could see bearish price action in August and the index has fallen hard from its 2023 peak.