Last update: Aug 22 2023
As the name suggests, the aggregated indicator provides a unified view of all our leading indicators. The indicator works on a “hat trick” logic: it activates when at least 3 individual leading indicators are jointly active within the last 21 days - the idea being that a collation of several indicators expressing different aspects of the market can better gauge turning points.
As an example, if the TLI, Rangefinder and Peak indicators all hit their respective bearish thresholds, the Aggregated Indicator will post a negative “0” reading and a red arrow will be generated above. In the symmetric case, if 3 indicators are turning bullish together the Aggregate will shift to 100 and issue a blue arrow.
For red arrows, history has shown that the S&P 500 has reacted with the highest probability of success over a 10 day horizon before returns start to diminish. For blue arrows, history has shown that the S&P 500 sees rising returns, with the shortest holding period of 10 trading days after its activation.
Most recently, the aggregated indicator successfully highlighted that the S&P 500 could see bearish price action in August and the index has fallen hard from its 2023 peak.